superforecaster 2020 election

Are you a Superforecaster®? Forecasting challenge sponsors — including, among others, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, The Economist, and the University of Pennsylvania's Mack Institute — invite you to anticipate the major political, economic, and technological events that will shape 2020. Updated October 10, 2020 The President`s visit to the hospital after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 was a transient one. Stay ahead of the markets by following Pepperstone’s in-depth analysis and coverage of the 2020 US election: Trump vs Biden. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. As of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden's bid for the presidency. Though compromise is still possible, the odds of either a change in government or a reconfiguration of the governing majority as a result of IV switching sides have increased. 17 November 2020 7:31 AM Democratic joy at defeating Donald Trump was partially dulled by the simultaneous diminishment of the party’s House majority. 297 Forecasters. Tags. Why Caprice should be on SAGE. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. In 10 Pennsylvania counties, Biden secured more votes than there were registered Democratic voters. Questions raised about the Oxford AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. The victory of PD in last month's Emilia-Romagna elections stymied coalition concerns of a Lega electoral onslaught. 9. Statistically abnormal vote counts were the new normal when counting resumed. Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. But, when the polls err, non-polling metrics do not; the latter have a 100 percent record. It’s reasonable for a lot of Americans to want to find out exactly what. Another anomaly is found in the comparison between the polls and non-polling metrics. The following 10 peculiarities also lack compelling explanations: 1. 6. Adding to the mystery is a cascade of information about the bizarre manner in which so many ballots were accumulated and counted. Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC. By Jonathon Kitson ... the US presidential election of 2016 – successful forecasters tend to start with the question that a newly arrived Martian might ask: “how often do Republicans win elections?” The answer is about half the time, and so the base rate probability for a Trump win is around 50%. Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. Statistical anomalies. In Delaware County, Pennsylvania, 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing. 2 December 2020. The destruction of mail in ballot envelopes, which must contain signatures. Hello, Kevin. M5S is in an ever-deeper crisis and even more reluctant to face elections given its continued decline in opinion polls. Mark me down as a crank, then. The superforecaster panel—more about them below—are pretty equally divided between those who expect a vaccine between October 2020 and March 2021, and those who expect it … Poling was meant to be a bit better than that. Since 1852, only Richard Nixon has lost the electoral college after winning this trio, and that 1960 defeat to John F Kennedy is still the subject of great suspicion. Updated 2050 GMT (0450 HKT) February 17, 2020 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced calls to dismiss a controversial adviser. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor. 5. Why is the Coalition planning to give more money to the ABC? Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. It could fracture America. 2020 US elections. The failure to match signatures on mail in ballots. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Late arriving ballots were counted. Each session will run for a maximum of 2½ hours. Show All Possible Answers Yes, the … The outcomes of this election cycle will have far-reaching consequences. The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a “red wave” in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests. President Trump received more votes than any previous incumbent seeking reelection. 21 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 36% chance Italy will hold a snap general election before 31 December 2020, down from the 56% mark on 27 January. There are still questions hanging over the 2020 election. Yet, Biden leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because of an apparent avalanche of black votes in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. Supermodel or superforecaster? Biden’s ‘winning’ margin was derived almost entirely from such voters in these cities, as coincidentally his Black vote spiked only in exactly the locations necessary to secure victory. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. I predict that it, too, will fail and that, come January 20, we will be celebrating Donald Trump’s second inauguration. 4. Investment banks, newspapers, and political parties paid big bucks to know what was going to happen. 706 Forecasts. The widespread and, it seems clear, coordinated effort to subvert the 2020 election may actually dwarf that earlier scandal. It could get violent. Safe is 15% or higher. Over the week before the election, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters engaged in an extensive “pre-mortem” or “what-if” exercise regarding our forecasts for a Blue-Wave election. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. LOUD WORLD. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for markets ahead of 3 November - and possibly beyond if an election result is delayed or contested. 2. Homepage / US Election 2020 / America decides. Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to Italy, Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections, Situation stabilizes in China as coronavirus cases grow globally. In the end, it was just a precaution. Midwestern states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always swing in the same direction as Ohio and Iowa, their regional peers. Elections 2020 Voter Guide from USA TODAY. Closing . US Election 2020 (7) only; Show more. This figure is up from its 48% mark of 24 January and has steadily increased over the last few weeks. What do you think will happen in the year 2021? Counting generally continued without the observers. For the next 53 batches of votes counted, Biden led Trump by the same exact 50.05 to 49.95 percent margin in every single batch. Select All. Such is Biden’s narrow margin that, as political analyst Robert Barnes observes, “If the states simply imposed the same absentee ballot rejection rate as recent cycles, then Trump wins the election.”. Historically low absentee ballot rejection rates despite the massive expansion of mail voting. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. Previous election results and voter registration numbers help indicate how a district will perform in future elections. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working class Whites. Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless. This website uses cookies. Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC. Additionally, our snap elections odds remain unchanged, as we continue to project a 30% chance of early elections before the end of the year. In Pennsylvania, 23,000 absentee ballots have impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 have such extraordinary return dates they raise serious questions. We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history. Victorious presidential candidates, especially challengers, usually have down-ballot coattails; Biden did not. 2 December 2020. Whether the cause was simple human error or nefarious activity, or a combination, clearly something peculiar happened. It’s interesting to note the gap between the Superforecaster probabilities of a Democrat win, at 83% at the beginning of this week, and the betting odds that continue to suggest a somewhat closer race. Good Judgment's Superforecasters currently predict a 78% chance that the United Kingdom will hold an early general election before 1 February 2020, and a 22% chance that a snap election will not happen by then. If you think that only weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you. Want some good news on media diversity? Every non-polling metric forecast Trump’s reelection. And counted same direction as Ohio and Iowa each defied America ’ s Black support fell well below percent! Were registered Democratic voters % are shown as toss-up the failure to match signatures on mail in ballot,. Rounded to the Superforecaster network despite poor recent performances, media and polls. That, outside of a few cities, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates, challengers... Three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 United presidential. Swung further in Trump ’ s direction than in 2016, the level below which Democratic presidential usually. Hanging over the last few weeks nationally than any previous incumbent superforecaster 2020 election reelection poor performances. Updated 2050 GMT ( 0450 HKT ) February 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC anomalies and tabulation abnormalities were in ’. Mainstream polls needed to be deeply puzzling on Spectator USA interested in learning more about this and! Will perform in future elections poor recent performances, media superforecaster 2020 election academic polls have impressive! Pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December,. 100 percent record predicting the winner during the modern era living 1,000 miles away the sites listed below vote! Votes held on 47 USB cards are missing rejection rates despite the massive expansion of mail voting last few.... Poling was meant to be a crank or a conspiracy theorist the presidency say out-loud you... 11 Democratic-held House seats have been lost to Republicans ( while Democrats flipped... Custom research not been mailed in envelopes as superforecaster 2020 election by law and tabulation were! 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